F1’s Middle East decision could crown Antonelli before the next race

Formula 1 has yet to decide whether the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix will run as planned or be replaced by a single event at Imola. The timing of that call could determine whether Kimi Antonelli clinches the drivers’ title on track or is crowned before the next race.

RacingNews365 reports that F1 has so far signalled an intention to complete the 2026 season as planned. A late cancellation remains possible if safety assurances from the Gulf states are judged insufficient, and planning for both options is under way.

Antonelli currently leads the championship by 102 points. Under the existing calendar, a lead of at least 125 points after Austin would secure the title; at least 100 after Mexico would settle it there. If Qatar and Abu Dhabi were replaced by one Imola round, a lead above 99 points after Austin could be enough for a decision before Mexico to crown him before the next race.

Waiting until the build-up to the São Paulo Grand Prix to announce a calendar change would leave the Mexico City race as another chance to settle the title on track and reduce the risk of an off-track crown. It would not eliminate that risk: if Antonelli were 75 to 99 points ahead after Mexico, a change before São Paulo could still make him champion before any racing at Interlagos.

The title fight cannot dictate the calendar, RacingNews365 argues: the decision must rest on safety, assurances about the Gulf races and logistics. An Imola alternative would require air freight rather than sea freight, while the wider operation still needs time to organise. The anticipated mid-October deadline for a definitive decision has passed.