Antonelli’s first title chance in Austin meets Verstappen’s Red Bull surge

With six rounds remaining, Austin opens a triple-header that continues in Mexico City and São Paulo—and gives Antonelli his first chance to clinch the drivers’ championship. He leads George Russell by 102 points, but must outscore his Mercedes team-mate by 23 to seal the title in Texas, a scenario Motorsport.com describes as unlikely.

The reversal from 2025 is stark. Russell finished fourth in the standings that year, 169 points ahead of rookie team-mate Antonelli. In 2026, Antonelli has eight victories, 14 podiums and six poles. Baku was the only non-podium result in which he lacked the pace for a top-three finish; his other results outside the top three came because of car issues.

Mercedes cannot clinch the constructors’ championship in Austin. It would need to leave Texas with a 215-point lead over Ferrari, compared with its current 134-point advantage; Mexico is the earliest opportunity to secure the title.

Mercedes won the opening six rounds of 2026 from pole, but Red Bull answered with a sustained run of upgrades; the preview identifies Baku as the location of perhaps its most decisive step. Verstappen finished second behind Russell at Baku, took his first win of 2026 at Sepang, then won both the Singapore sprint and Grand Prix. He took each of those three most recent race-event victories from pole and has been on the podium in seven of the last eight Grands Prix. With the RB22 now performing across different types of circuit, Motorsport.com sees Red Bull as arguably the favourite in Austin.

McLaren also needs to halt a slide. After back-to-back wins at Budapest and Zandvoort earlier in 2026, it went without a podium in the Azerbaijan–Malaysia–Singapore triple-header and now leads Red Bull by only seven points in the fight for third. The Austin package is modest, with front-end changes intended to address braking reliability and performance problems and small floor revisions to test. Chief designer Rob Marshall said he thought McLaren was getting stronger and that Austin probably suited the car better. The Singapore sprint incident between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could resurface as a talking point, although the preview says McLaren appears to consider the matter closed.

Off the track, Haas has confirmed that Formula 2 points leader Rafael Camara will make his F1 debut in 2027 as Esteban Ocon’s replacement; Oliver Bearman is likely to partner him once contractual details are settled. In theory, Racing Bulls is the only other team whose 2027 seats remain to be confirmed. Motorsport.com expects Liam Lawson to stay for 2027, with Nikola Tsolov a possible alternative, and suggests Lawson may need a new team in 2028.

Track limits will be another Austin focus. Antonelli had four breaches in Singapore, in theory the threshold for a five-second penalty; he escaped the sanction after brake issues caused one. Circuit of the Americas’ long run-off areas and high-speed corners make track limits a recurring concern, and 32 lap times were deleted at the 2025 race.