Antonelli could clinch F1 title in Austin, but outscoring Russell by exactly 16 points in Singapore leaves a tie possible

Formula1.com says Kimi Antonelli could clinch his first Formula 1 title in Austin. Its scenario requires him to outscore George Russell by at least 16 points in Singapore, then win the United States Grand Prix while Russell scores zero. Exactly 16 still leaves Russell able to draw level on points after Austin.

Formula1.com published the calculation on 6 October 2026, after the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia at Sepang on 4 October. Seven rounds remained in the 2026 season, including the Singapore Sprint weekend, with a maximum of 183 points available.

Antonelli’s 84-point lead after Bahrain would rise to 100 if he outscored Russell by exactly 16 in Singapore. An Austin win while Russell scored zero would make it 125; 125 points would still be available after the United States Grand Prix, so Russell could match the total by scoring all of them while Antonelli scored none. A 17-point Singapore gain followed by the same Austin result would leave Antonelli 126 points ahead, one beyond Russell’s remaining maximum.

One Formula1.com example has Antonelli win both the Singapore Sprint and Grand Prix, while Russell scores no points in the Sprint and finishes third in the race.

A separate Formula1.com projection assumes both drivers maintain their 2026 season-to-date median finishing positions. Under that model, the earliest possible clinch moves to Round 19 in Mexico.