How Red Bull can pass McLaren in Austin

Red Bull can take third place in the constructors’ standings from McLaren at the United States Grand Prix, but it must outscore its rival by at least eight points in Austin. McLaren has 339 points to Red Bull’s 332 after 17 races. With no sprint, a team can score at most 43 points. If Red Bull scores seven more than McLaren, the teams will be level on points, with countback on their best results deciding the order.

Max Verstappen’s finish sets Red Bull’s baseline. If he wins and Isack Hadjar scores no points, Red Bull would earn 25; McLaren could score no more than 17 and still be passed. A third place for Lando Norris and a ninth for Oscar Piastri would give McLaren exactly 17 points. If Verstappen finishes second and Hadjar scores nothing, McLaren’s ceiling falls to 10 points: one car fifth, the other outside the points.

Every point Hadjar scores raises the total McLaren can manage by one. A Verstappen win with Hadjar fifth would give Red Bull 35 points; even Norris second and Piastri sixth—26 points for McLaren—would not prevent Red Bull passing it. If both McLarens fail to score, a sixth place for either Red Bull driver would be enough to change the standings.

Verstappen’s consecutive wins at Sepang and in Singapore gave Red Bull its first victories with its own Ford-backed power unit. The team outscored McLaren 35–10 across the Malaysia weekend and 34–23 in Singapore. Andrea Stella called the season “ping-pong” and said an upgrade could add about three tenths of a second. Verstappen did not want to say he would be “in the fight” in Austin; he said the last few weekends had been great and that he was taking it race by race.