Palmer unsure Antonelli can win in Austin as Verstappen re-emerges

Kimi Antonelli gets his first chance to clinch the 2026 Formula 1 drivers’ title in Austin, but Jolyon Palmer is unsure the Mercedes driver can win there. Palmer said Mercedes itself was still unsure whether its upgrade package had made the car better or worse; Max Verstappen, meanwhile, had re-emerged as a dominant force in Malaysia.

Antonelli leads George Russell by 102 points and Lewis Hamilton by 111. To clinch the title in Austin, he must win, with Russell finishing no higher than ninth and Hamilton no higher than fifth. That scenario assumes the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races go ahead as planned.

On the F1 Nation podcast, Palmer said Mercedes initially thought its Malaysian upgrade had made the car worse. The team then split its approach, running the new specification on one car and the old version on the other. Mercedes thought it had learned something in Singapore while Antonelli continued on the new spec, Palmer said. For Austin, Palmer expects both cars to use that version and Antonelli to stay on it, but says the team still needs to assess what it learned and whether it can get off to a better start.

Palmer also sees a possible advantage in Austin. He described the permanent circuit as offering more room for mistakes and for drivers to push to the limit, and expects it to suit Antonelli better than Singapore. Palmer said Antonelli had found the car difficult to drive for part of the Singapore weekend because it was operating in a narrow window, leaving little margin for error. Malaysia had suited Antonelli better too, he said: the Italian could be less cautious there and his performance was acceptable.

Palmer’s view is conditional: if Mercedes extracts the potential it believes is in the car, Antonelli can win; if not, the task will be very difficult.