Mercedes’ qualifying edge narrows as F1 rivals close in

Mercedes’ early-season qualifying margin has narrowed: its average gap to pole was +0.000 seconds over the Australia-to-Japan stretch and +0.162 seconds from Hungary to Singapore. With Baku included, Mercedes still came closest to pole in that later window, ahead of Ferrari (+0.277s), McLaren (+0.283s) and Red Bull (+0.339s).

With Baku excluded, Ferrari has the smallest average gap to pole at +0.184 seconds. Mercedes averaged +0.189, McLaren +0.191 and Red Bull +0.233, leaving just 0.049 seconds between the four teams.

The qualifying trend coincides with a broader spread of winners. Mercedes won the opening six grands prix as Formula 1 switched to new technical regulations; Ferrari later won in Austria and Great Britain, Lando Norris took back-to-back wins for McLaren in Hungary and the Netherlands, and Max Verstappen won in Malaysia and Singapore for Red Bull. Mercedes still had 11 victories, against two apiece for Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull.

Mercedes’ latest W17 update has delivered less relative progress than the team hoped. Bradley Lord, Mercedes’ deputy team principal, said Ferrari and Red Bull had upgraded before or by Baku while Mercedes introduced its own update in Malaysia; he also said both rivals had been more competitive in the two latest races than earlier in the season.

Ahead of Austin, deputy technical director Simone Resta said the strongest team was difficult to predict. He expected Red Bull to fight for the top position, described Ferrari as competitive in almost all conditions but possibly short of the very top, and noted that McLaren had shown in some races that it could be the strongest by some margin.

Mercedes still held healthy leads in both championships, and Kimi Antonelli could clinch his maiden world title in Austin.