Rain and cooler forecast complicate São Paulo GP tyre strategy

Rain remains a genuine threat at Interlagos, but Sunday's São Paulo Grand Prix could still be dry. Wet qualifying has left the field with different stocks of intermediates, while a dry race brings its own tyre question: Sunday's forecast is no higher than 15°C, compared with 26–27°C during third practice.

All 22 drivers have a fresh set each of medium and hard tyres. Those who reached Q3 have four fresh soft sets, one fewer than drivers eliminated earlier in qualifying. Pirelli has indicated that a two-stop strategy should be quickest, but the cooler conditions could upset that calculation. Pushing hard through each stint can heat the tyre core while cold air and asphalt leave the outer rubber comparatively cool and stiff, a contrast that can cause graining and rapid grip loss.

If rain makes intermediates necessary, Verstappen and Hamilton each have five fresh sets, compared with two for Norris and Russell and three for Antonelli. The forecast does not suggest rain heavy enough for full wets. If intermediates are needed, their wear rate will matter: significant degradation could give Verstappen and Hamilton an advantage.