Antonelli can clinch F1 title in Mexico as Russell and Hamilton need wins

Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli can clinch his first Formula 1 drivers’ title at next weekend’s Mexico Grand Prix without winning the race himself. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton each have a route to keep the title fight alive, but each must win and rely on a specific result from the championship leader.

Antonelli’s ninth victory of the season, at the United States Grand Prix, left him 123 points ahead of Russell and 124 ahead of Hamilton. He did not clinch there: he needed Russell to finish ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth, but Russell finished eighth and Hamilton fourth. Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris also dropped out of contention in the United States, leaving Russell and Hamilton as the other two title contenders.

Five rounds and 125 points remain, provided the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix go ahead amid the conflict. After Mexico, 100 points would remain. A rival 100 points behind could only draw level by taking every remaining point while Antonelli scores none; the Italian’s season-leading win tally would then give him the countback. A challenger must leave Mexico no more than 99 points behind to keep the title fight open.

Russell is 123 points behind and needs to outscore Antonelli by at least 24: he must win while Antonelli finishes 10th or lower. Hamilton is 124 behind and needs a 25-point swing, meaning a win while Antonelli scores no points. If neither reaches his target, Antonelli will be champion in Mexico.