F1 analysis links Verstappen’s first 2026 win to Red Bull’s Baku upgrade

Max Verstappen converted his first pole of 2026 into his and Red Bull’s first win of the year at Sepang on Sunday, 4 October. Formula 1 contributor Michael Lamonato argues that Saturday’s pole alone did not set up the victory: he traces the groundwork to Red Bull’s upgraded RB22, unveiled in Baku about 10 days earlier.

Red Bull described the Baku package as its final major upgrade of the year. The listed parts included a new floor body and diffuser, new sidepods, new cooling louvres, new mirrors and a new halo fairing. Before Sepang, Red Bull was fourth in the 2026 Teams’ Championship, with a significant deficit to the top three. At the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku the previous weekend, engine troubles and yellow flags played a significant role in Verstappen starting eighth, Formula 1 says; he then came within less than two tenths of victory.

On Saturday, 3 October, Verstappen took pole with a 1:35.130 lap, 0.298 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton. Heavy rain delayed Sunday’s start. On the initial formation lap, several drivers struggled to maintain speed. The start procedure was suspended before racing got under way. Once the race began, Verstappen fell behind Kimi Antonelli and George Russell on the run to Turn 1, then passed the Mercedes pair on either side of the Safety Car. The Safety Car gave drivers who had started on intermediates an ideal window to switch to slicks, while those who lined up on slicks were caught out. Verstappen won by 2.307 seconds over Antonelli.

Formula 1’s race review said Mercedes’s first major upgrade package since Canada had not had the desired effect: the team struggled for pace relative to Red Bull and could not find the right set-up. Deputy team principal Bradley Lord said Verstappen’s advantage had been in line with Mercedes’ expectations, while Mercedes itself had fallen short of its hopes and still needed to identify the main causes.

Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies puts the Baku package in a wider context. He said it contributed to the progress but was one part of the whole team’s effort; he saw nothing specific about it compared with earlier upgrades. Mekies estimated that Red Bull began the season about a second behind and at one point considered the possibility that a three-tenths deficit would remain. He credited work on the chassis and power unit with closing those last three tenths.

Some of the RB22’s development predates Baku. RacingNews365 technical expert Paolo Filisetti says Red Bull reshaped the sidepods at both the top and lower edge, enabling a different aerodynamic set-up from the Spanish Grand Prix onwards. He describes the car as now responding more precisely and directly to steering inputs, and points to Isack Hadjar’s performances as evidence of progress.

The Sepang win leaves open how widely the RB22’s pace will carry. Mekies cautioned that Sepang’s extreme heat, rough asphalt and layout may have put most cars outside their ideal operating window, potentially affecting the competitive order. He expects Red Bull to contend for podiums in the coming races, but said whether it can fight for wins at every circuit is impossible to predict; he also expects rivals to bring upgrades.

The Singapore Grand Prix, scheduled for 9–11 October, is the next test of that range. Mekies said Red Bull expected the slower corners to suit the RB22, though he called rival pace difficult to judge. Filisetti sees Marina Bay’s very different characteristics as a test of whether the RB22 can consistently unlock its potential across fundamentally different track layouts.