Forecast: Mercedes most likely to clinch F1 constructors’ title in Brazil

Mercedes is more likely to clinch the 2026 Formula 1 constructors’ title in Brazil than in Mexico, according to Motorsport.com’s projection ahead of the United States Grand Prix. After Singapore, Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, with six rounds remaining.

The forecast starts from Mercedes’ average 7.6-point advantage per race over Ferrari across the first 17 grands prix. If that margin holds over the next two rounds, Mercedes would be about 149 points clear after Mexico, while 172 points would remain across the four races that follow. Motorsport.com sees a Mexico clinch as a difficult prospect and Brazil as the likelier next opportunity.

Mexico is still possible in an outlier scenario. A Mercedes one-two in Austin, combined with Ferrari scoring no points, would extend the gap to 177 points and give Mercedes a chance to clinch the title in Mexico. Motorsport.com calls that result unlikely: Mercedes has not yet taken a full points haul in a grand prix in which Ferrari scored nothing this season.

The 258 points available across the six remaining rounds assume Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.