Hypothetical F1 standings still leave Antonelli 51 points clear of Russell

George Russell would be 90 points better off in RacingNews365’s luck-adjusted calculation through the São Paulo Grand Prix, but Kimi Antonelli would still lead by 51.

The exercise lifts Russell from 262 actual points to 352 and Antonelli from 390 to 403, cutting their gap from 128 points to 51. RacingNews365 says Antonelli could still clinch the title at Las Vegas in this alternative table.

The adjustments rest on counterfactual judgments. RacingNews365 estimates that Russell likely would have taken pole and probably won in China had his car not stopped in Q3. It also considers a Canadian Grand Prix win fair to assume: Russell was leading when an engine failure struck. At the earlier Barcelona Grand Prix, the calculation restores points to Antonelli after his late engine failure, deducting points from Russell. For the Spanish Grand Prix later in the season, RacingNews365 says Norris lost out to an unluckily timed safety car; its calculation moves Antonelli from first to second and deducts seven points, while Russell’s fifth place is unchanged. The analysis leaves Russell’s Singapore Sprint crash unadjusted because it treats the crash as driver error.

Antonelli had already won the actual title in Mexico City, in round 19 of the season. The possible Las Vegas clinch belongs only to the hypothetical calculation.