Motorsport.com expects Antonelli to clinch F1 title in Mexico after Austin win

Kimi Antonelli’s United States Grand Prix win put Mexico in view as the likely scene of his first Formula 1 title, in the assessment of Motorsport.com’s post-race writers. George Russell remained mathematically in contention, but Oleg Karpov forecast that Antonelli would clinch there if Russell did not win.

Antonelli took his first pole since Spa and turned it into a commanding victory, with a clean start and strong pace on both tyre compounds. Karpov called the Austin weekend perfect and said only an extraordinary turn of events could prevent Antonelli from winning the championship.

Mercedes’ upgrade offered a less uniform story. Federico Faturos said the package introduced at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia made the W17 quicker but narrowed its set-up window. After being unhappy with the car’s behaviour in Singapore, Russell reverted to the previous specification; in Austin both drivers ran the upgrades, and Mercedes also brought a front wing it had trialled in Singapore. Faturos saw the package’s potential finally emerge, but at least on Antonelli’s side of the garage.

Karpov used Austin to raise a separate concern about Russell’s 2027 prospects. He left open whether Russell’s difficulty matching Antonelli came from his driving or something else, but urged him to use the remaining races of 2026 to find answers and prepare for 2027.

Liam Lawson was Faturos’ bright spot in the midfield. He was sixth-fastest on Friday and led the midfield home in ninth on Sunday. With all eight cars from the leading four teams reaching the finish, Faturos called ninth the best available result; it was Lawson’s 13th points finish of the 2026 season and helped Racing Bulls pull further clear of Alpine.

Williams received the bleakest assessment. Jose Carlos de Celis contrasted its 2025 insistence that the team was focused entirely on 2026 with the two podiums it still scored that year. Williams scored in Azerbaijan, its only points-scoring race in its last 12; De Celis judged the Baku upgrade less effective than hoped. At Austin, Williams finished ahead only of Cadillac and behind Lance Stroll’s Aston Martin. De Celis called the weekend a possible new low and expected a long remainder of 2026, while noting the team was again promising a better 2027.