Lawson’s route back to Red Bull’s senior team could shape Tsolov’s 2027 chance

Liam Lawson’s 2027 prospects could affect whether Formula 2 contender Nikola Tsolov gets a Racing Bulls seat: Motorsport.com argues that Red Bull’s choice may hinge on whether Lawson’s form merits a return to its senior team.

Lawson has scored 83 points in 2026, nearly twice Pierre Gasly’s 42. Earlier this year, he spent three rounds at Red Bull as Isack Hadjar’s stand-in before returning to Racing Bulls.

He collected 24 points over the last four grands prix—more than Hadjar and George Russell. Lawson also leads rookie team-mate Arvid Lindblad 12-6 in qualifying and is 0.141 seconds faster on average in race trim. Lindblad scored one point in the same span, though a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico hindered him.

Motorsport.com nevertheless assesses that Lawson faces a substantial chance of losing his Racing Bulls seat and his place on the 2027 F1 grid.

Tsolov, 19, is one of the frontrunners for that second seat. He won six of the first 14 F2 races and is seven points behind championship leader Rafael Camara, with a genuine title chance. But he has not won in his last 11 contests, and his qualifying pace has lagged that of his main rivals.

The analysis presents a conditional choice. If Red Bull believes Lawson could merit another chance with its senior team, Tsolov may have to wait, perhaps in Super Formula—a route that has taken Red Bull juniors Pierre Gasly and Lawson to F1. If Red Bull sees no realistic path back for Lawson, Motorsport.com argues, keeping him at Racing Bulls would make less sense and Tsolov may get his chance.

After the Mexican GP, Lawson was again asked about the uncertainty around his seat despite the gap to Lindblad. He called it a ‘massive shame’ and said he was trying to do everything he could each time he got in the car.